寂静猎手

= 美股期权实战 · 现金流系统与复利实验室 =

"投资中最重要的是要理解自己在做什么,不要盲目跟风。——查理·芒格"

Article List

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Trading Insights

2026-09-20

1221 字

7 min read

Starting from 31 million kronor in 1900 and paying prizes for more than a century, the Nobel Foundation's invested capital now stands at about 6.7 billion kronor. One formula explains it all — return above spending, and the principal grows itself. It is the same math behind my options cash-flow system.

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Trade Review

2026-09-19

788 字

4 min read

At 2:51 pm ET on Sep 18, nine hours before the deadline, one combo order filled: bought back the 10C at 0.66, sold the 12C OCT23 at 0.44. Rolling has two iron rules — the new premium must cover the buyback cost, and the new expiry must avoid the event calendar. We nearly nailed the first. The second, we nearly missed.

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Trade Review

2026-09-18

690 字

4 min read

On September 18, two buy orders took back all 17 TRON JAN'28 5C short legs: 7 @ $0.50 and 10 @ $0.48, averaging $0.488 against a $0.548 sell average — a +$109.16 settlement-basis exit. The seal that locked 1,700 shares for nine months is gone. This review is about one idea: the real cost of a liquidity trap isn't the loss — it's the time. And unlocking costs money that a RED-state account doesn't have the right to spend.

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Trade Review

2026-09-17

879 字

5 min read

On a quantum-sector rally day, step one of the phased stock exit: QUBT's 300 shares sold outright (a $0.22 CC premium isn't worth a 29-day lock), while RGTI's 200 shares got 2× 18C Calls sold against them ($0.47 premium, three times QUBT's). Full trade ledger, the premium-thickness test, and the three-step exit framework.

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Trade Review

2026-09-17

773 字

4 min read

On September 17, Nokia expanded its Microsoft partnership and NOK rallied 5% pre-market, 7% intraday. Three days earlier, on the crash day, I bought back Calls I had sold. Today, on the rally day, I bought back Puts I had sold — the mirror image of the same muscle memory. Trading is like surfing, but smart investors aren't surfers. They're helmsmen: never betting on any single wave, just making sure every wave that passes leaves a little momentum in the boat.

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Seller Strategies

2026-09-17

1391 字

7 min read

On a 6% rally day, Covered Calls look like the perfect compromise: keep the stock, collect the premium. But the real cost of a CC isn't margin — it's the freedom to sell your stock for the next few weeks. Using a real RGTI decision and the TRON trap that locked 1,700 shares for nine months, this guide lays out how to use CCs as an exit tool without getting trapped.

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Trading Insights

2026-09-17

732 字

4 min read

143 options trades made $2,048. 48 stock trades lost $4,064. On the same tickers, option profits never covered stock losses. Nine months of real account data, and three rules for an orderly stock exit.

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Options Pitfalls

2026-09-16

831 字

5 min read

When your PMCC short leg gets assigned, what does the broker actually do? Debunking the deadliest beginner misconception: the system won't settle the combo — it just leaves you short stock while your LEAPS sit untouched.

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交易洞察

2026-09-15

810 字

5 min read

The internet is full of "turned $200 into $20,000" zero-day screenshots. What is the real story? Academic data, exchange statistics, and backtests reveal the true expectancy and survivorship bias of 0DTE trading.

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Trade Review

2026-09-14

1278 字

7 min read

On Sep 14, NOK fell -13.30% under a triple hit — an AI-infrastructure repricing, the confirmation of Nokia's near-total China exit, and a collapsed Modulate Space deal. While everyone watched how badly the put sellers were hurting, I did something else — bought back 10x 12C at $0.06 (sold at an average of $0.179) and 2x RGTI 18C at $0.155 (sold at an average of $0.453), a combined +$166.41 banked early. This review is about one idea — profit-taking on short calls should not come from 'waiting for expiry' but from a simple comparison: is the premium left on the table worth the event risk?

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